FPL Gameweek 3 Tips: 11 Key Takeaways From The Opening Two Gameweeks

We are two gameweeks into the new Fantasy Premier League season.

And there are already several talking points.

With fixture swings, wildcards and free hits entering the conversation for Gameweek 3, it’s time for a review.

Let’s dive straight in and discuss the biggest takeaways, with the numbers that mattered.

1) Arsenal Defence: Ezri Konsa Emerges As A £4.4m FPL Bargain

Arsenal have an xGC of 0.53 through two games.

Eleven shots conceded, total. 

The next best defence in the league, Manchester City, sits at 1.31 xGC.

We know William Saliba is out for around three months with a back injury, and Jurriën Timber is still working back from a groin problem.

Cristhian Mosquera went down with a hamstring scare at Villa Park on Monday night.

Enter Ezri Konsa.

If Mosquera's fitness becomes a greater concern, Konsa at £4.4m, in this incredible Arsenal defence, is impossible to ignore.

Bottom line: own an Arsenal defender, or maybe two.

2) Chelsea Attack: João Pedro, Cole Palmer And Morgan Rogers Offer Major FPL Potential

Chelsea have a front three that’s up there with one of the best combinations in Europe. 

João Pedro: 1.85 xG, 1.94 xGI, two goals and two assists already banked.

Cole Palmer: 0.94 xG, 1.26 xGI, two goals and an assist. 

Morgan Rogers: 1.10 xG, 2.21 xGI, one goal and one assist.

Defensively, Chelsea sit 7th in the league for xGC at 2.74; they have offered up seven big chances to the opposition and have conceded five goals.

This team is built to outscore their opposition. 

Bottom line: their attackers are great options for our FPL teams, and do not expect them to keep clean sheets.

3) Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes Leads Expected Goal Involvement

Bruno Fernandes has an xGI of 2.84 through the opening two gameweeks, which is the highest in the league.

He has four goal involvements (in one game) to show for it.

So yes, there is a touch of over-performing, but the underlying numbers look great.

The big problem is his price.

At £12.0m, he needs to be in the captaincy conversation to justify keeping him in our FPL teams.

There is no doubt that he will keep ticking along with returns, but another monster haul feels unlikely.

Other premium options with favourable fixtures could take the captain’s armband off him.

Bottom line: Bruno will keep doing Bruno things for Manchester United.

But we need to be open to utilising his funds to get other players with favourable fixtures.

At your own risk, of course.

4) Manchester City Attack Shows Strong FPL Potential

Erling Haaland got off five shots and scored two goals, with an xG of 0.66, against Crystal Palace on Friday night.

Rayan Cherki got off three shots and scored two goals, with an xG of 0.35 and xGI of 0.90 in the same game.

Phil Foden posted 0.87 xG and 1.32 xGI.

These are all good signs for Manchester City.

Antoine Semenyo also contributed, but his underlying numbers are less impressive.

They have Coventry City (H) in Gameweek 3.

You could argue it is a triple captain fixture for Erling Haaland.

Bottom line: triple up on Manchester City assets if you can; it is a very strong fixture.

5) Newcastle United FPL Assets Impress Despite Underlying Attacking Concerns

Newcastle United have ripped the script after their summer exodus.

However, their underlying numbers urge caution.

As a team, they’ve generated just 2.31 xG after two games, while only four sides in the league have created less.

Yoane Wissa has started the season strong with a 1.34 xG, 11th best in the league.

Anthony Elanga has performed well, but his underlying data shows he’s converted from unlikely goal-scoring opportunities (0.42 xG).

Bottom line: they have good fixtures on the horizon, but I wouldn’t necessarily triple up.

Yoane Wissa is my favourite pick.

I also like Lewis Hall and Malick Thiaw at the back.

6) Hull City Defence Offers Budget FPL Value Despite Concerning Underlying Numbers

Hull City fans are in dreamland.

Their game plan is clear: a defence-first mindset.

They sit a respectable 10th in the league for xGC at 3.12.

But they’ve already faced 32 shots.

John Egan looks to be benefiting the most with this tactic in terms of defensive contributions.

He earned 21 DEFCONs in GW1 and followed that up with 13 in GW2. 

Bottom line: John Egan is a legit budget option - but primarily for DEFCONs; the clean sheets won’t last forever.

7) Liverpool FPL Assets Underwhelm Despite Promising Alexander Isak Numbers

Liverpool’s “heavy metal” football in years past was embodied by fullbacks Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson bombing up and down the flanks and providing excellent service to the attackers.

So far, it has looked less convincing with Milos Kerkez and Jeremie Frimpong.

Kerkez hasn’t had a sniff with an xG of 0.02 and xGI of 0.06 after the first two gameweeks.

Similarly, Frimpong sits with 0.01 xG and 0.12 xGI. 

And they don’t offer much in terms of DEFCONs either.

Clearly, they rely on creating opportunities through the middle of the pitch.

Florian Wirtz should be that creator, but his start to the season has been underwhelming.

Alexander Isak got his goal against Nottingham Forrest, and the underlying numbers look good (2.08 xG after 2 games).

But the eye test suggests we still haven’t seen their best football yet.

Hopefully, there's some improvement on Friday night against Ipswich Town (A).

Bottom line: hold your Liverpool assets until after Ipswich (A), then reassess.

8) Morgan Gibbs-White Confirmed As Nottingham Forest Penalty Taker For FPL

Morgan Gibbs-White has one goal, one assist and has registered 0.92 xG after the first two gameweeks.

At Anfield, it was confirmed what many expected: he is on penalties.

Nottingham Forrest are not competing in Europe.

Fewer games, fresher legs. 

Oliver Glasner has a decent squad, and the recent addition of Daniel Muñoz from Crystal Palace makes them even better.

Bottom line: keep your eye on Forrest.

9) Tottenham Hotspur FPL Assets Raise Concerns

The underlying numbers confirm it.

Tottenham Hotspurs rank 18th for xGC (4.59) and 12th for xG (2.92).

They are giving up too many opportunities to the opposition and are not creating enough for themselves.

Roberto De Zerbi hasn't found his best XI, and the numbers say there's real work to do before this squad looks coherent.

Bottom line: stay away until the results (and the underlying data) actually turn.

10) Premier League Transfer Window Creates New FPL Options And Selection Dilemmas

Bradley Barcola to Liverpool, Iliman Ndiaye to Man City (and not Spurs, ouch), Enzo Fernández is Man City-bound too, Nick Woltemade is off to Juventus (thinning the competition for Wissa's minutes at Newcastle), Jack Grealish back to Everton, and Tosin Adarabioyo and Mykhailo Mudryk have joined Spurs.

A lot of shirt-changing.

Bottom line: resist the urge to jump on the “shiny new toys”.

Minutes security beats hype every time.

11) FPL Gameweek 3 Strategy: Key Transfers, Fixtures And Players To Target

Lean into the Arsenal defence and watch how the Konsa situation unfolds.

Prioritise getting Manchester City assets for your FPL teams for the Coventry City (H) fixture.

And make a plan for Chelsea against Hull City (H) in Gameweek 4.

Is using the Bruno funds the easiest way to do it?

Newcastle are heading into a good run of fixtures with some confidence.

Stay patient and keep learning.

Want To Explore The Numbers Further?

There is still a lot to learn after only two Gameweeks, and some of the early trends above will inevitably change as the sample grows.

For anyone who wants to dig into the numbers in more detail, TFA has recently added a new FPL Maps section under the FPL 2026/27 tab.

It gives you another way to compare players and clubs across a range of metrics, and could be useful when weighing up transfers, differentials or fixture swings over the next few Gameweeks.

Definitely worth checking out if you like making your FPL decisions with the data in front of you.